The writing is on the wall, a major spring storm is on tap for the Midwest this weekend. It's already developing as you can see by this satellite image late Thursday evening.
So far moisture is limited but it's rapidly surging northward ahead of the intensifying surface low in Colorado. Dew points have reached 60 all the way to Kansas City.
Temperatures are already showing a major contrast Thursday evening with low 90s in west Texas to upper 20s in NE North Dakota.
That thermal contrast will fuel the storm as it wraps up and enters the Midwest Friday evening. It will also create a difficult temperature forecast around my area with readings ranging from the 30s near the Minnesota Iowa border to the low 70s in southern Iowa. A difference of 30 miles in the position of the front could make a 20 degree difference within a single county.
With the stark contrast in temperatures and a low pressure moving along the nearly stationary boundary thunderstorms will develop Friday and Friday night. Near and south of the potent front strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from SW and SC Iowa into Missouri and Kansas. The Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk of severe storms currently indicated. It's possible that this could be upgraded even more if conditions warrant by Friday morning. A strong tornado or two is possible in this area.
Here's a PDS tornado sounding from southwest Iowa Friday evening. The virtual PDS indicates the possibility of particularly dangerous tornadoes.
The storm also has a wintry side. Winter storm watches are out in NC Iowa and blizzard warnings are flying in the northwest part of the state, and points NW.
The dynamic nature of the system (and its late season arrival) make snowfall forecasts very difficult. However, early models are pointing towards amounts like this. These are very preliminary and subject to change. In my local area what falls is not expected until late Saturday night or Sunday
The EURO has this for snowfall accumulations.
This is also going to be a wet storm for much of the Midwest. Here's the total precipitation forecast by the GFS.
Now the EURO.
Due to the slow nature of the system. Chances for rain or snow will exist from Friday into Sunday. WInds will also get cranking and with temperatures crashing, the pleasant weather of Thursday will be long gone for several days. Nice while it lasted! Roll weather...TS