top of page
thumbnail_1 ts baner, future in your hands.png


Well, you never say never in this business but I think the chances for snow falling again this spring (the central Midwest), are slim and none. We've finally broken out of the remarkably cold pattern aloft that has dominated the first 3 weeks of April. Ridging and a more westerly jet stream should see to it that the next week is dry and mild.

While most of the teleconnections I employ in my long range outlooks are forecast to be generally neutral through May, there is one key driver that still shows the potential for cooler than normal weather, especially the first 2 weeks of May. That teleconnection I'm referring to is the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation). You can see much of the 50 member means are bullish on a negative phase going into May and holding that way through the 11th of the month.

You can also see that a negative EPO in May correlates to cooler than normal readings in the NC United States.

After you all groan, keep in mind that a normal high by then is around 70, The 2-3 degree departure is far from the 15-25 degree deficits we've been seeing much of this month. The April temperature anomaly for April so far looks like this. That's mighty ugly unless you're a polar bear!

Another thing about this new pattern is the dry air that's overspread the Midwest. With high pressure in strong control PWATs (precipital water values) are running only 20%-30% of normal.

The dry air resulted in an afternoon humidity in Cedar Rapids of just 17% Monday afternoon. It doesn't get much lower than that. From what I've seen the dry air will dominate the next week. Outside of a shower chance Thursday night it looks dry through next Monday. Below is the 7 day precipitation off the EURO. Very good news for farmers trying to catch-up in the fields.

Also, there's more positive news and that's the potential for some parts of my area to see its first 80 day of the year. Next Monday looks to be the day to watch. Here's the forecast highs on the EURO Monday afternoon. Boy does that look good!

The bottom line is warm dry weather will be with us much of the next 7 days. It's about time. Roll weather...TS

bottom of page