As expected, a classic May multi-day severe weather outbreak is underway in the Plains and Midwest. The focus of the first volley Tuesday was centered on Kansas, Nebraska, and a bit of Iowa. As of 9:00pm Tuesday the Storm Prediction Center had already recorded 20 tornadoes with more to come Wednesday and Thursday.
One of the storms near Culver, Kansas was a huge wedge that may come in as an EF4 when damage surveys are done. It certainly has the size and look as you can see below.
The hail above was from the same tornadic supercell.
Today and Thursday the focus shifts a bit further northeast and chances for strong to severe storms will be on the increase in parts of my viewing area. SPC has this area highlighted for strong storms Wednesday. All modes of severe weather are possible including tornadoes.
Thursday is also a day to watch as the instability is enhanced by a wave ejecting out of NE Kansas. While it's too early to get a solid read on the precise positions of the overall parameters, the hi-res 3k NAM is concerning for parts of my area. Below you can see a very impressive PDS (particularly damaging tornado) sounding between Iowa City and the Quad Cities Thursday evening.
The GFS is also showing potential with this tornado sounding near Cedar Rapids.
The NAM which had been in the same camp shifted south on last nights run. We'll see if that holds. It would be an important trend for my area keeping the worst of the storms just south. Whatever happens, if instability can be realized and forcing sets up as indicated, Thursday could be a significant severe weather day in some part of eastern Iowa and far western Illinois.
Additionally, a healthy rain event is likely as multiple rounds of showers and storms advance along the nearly stationary boundary. The GFS has this for total rainfall through Thursday night.
With so much weather on the table I'm going to make this a short one as the next couple of days could be long ones. Roll weather...TS