Severe thunderstorms popped over the Midwest once again Wednesday. Some of these reached into my southern counties where several tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings we're issued. While there were no confirmed twisters here, other parts of the country weren't so fortunate. As of 10pm Wednesday night more than 200 reports of severe weather were registered by SPC.
Thursday will be the third day of this outbreak and once again parts of my area may be involved. The big question for my area will be the placement of a warm front. There's still some disagreement where it will set up in my area and that makes the forecast a tough call.
As it stands now the hi-res NAM shows the front close to I-80. That favors southern Iowa and WC Illinois for the strongest storms. The model also shows on its simulated radar discrete supercells extending east from a surface low and warm front in SC Iowa. They also extend south along the dry line into Missouri.
A difference of 50-75 miles will make a significant difference where the strongest storms form. Clouds or morning precipitation will also come into play determining the amount of instability. The bottom line is these small details will be big players in what happens tomorrow. Fresh data in the morning hours will be eagerly awaited. Meantime, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the severe weather risk to enhanced over much of my area Thursday.
If you're in southern Iowa, northern Missouri, or WC Illinois, keep an eye to the sky. All modes of severe weather including tornadoes will be on the table. Roll weather...TS