- May 4, 2018

A FRIENDLIER BRAND OF WEATHER...

Thursday started with the promise of widespread severe weather around the central Midwest. At 1:00am Thursday the Storm Prediction Center had an enhanced risk of severe weather.

At 7:00am the the enhanced risk was still in place, although smaller in size.

As new data came in it became apparent instability was not being realized and the enhanced risk was dropped by SPC in the 11:00am update to slight.

By 2:00pm my area was removed even from the slight risk area as parameters continued to decay.

Finally, by 8:00pm nothing but a marginal risk remained.

While scattered strong storms did develop, it was a relatively quiet ending to what looked to be a busy day. The biggest caveat to the severe weather threat, tornadoes in particular was the lack of heating. Instability just never reached the levels that earlier models predicted. And so it goes....

Friday will finally see an end to this 3 day outbreak of thunderstorms. The passage of a cold front will cut off the feed of moisture that's been driving the storms. It should also produce clearing skies and what 's expected to be a decent afternoon. The mild temperatures will continue through the weekend. These are the highs the EURO is forecasting Friday through Sunday.

The only fly in the weekend ointment is a cold front that passes late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. A few showers are possible but with limited moisture they look scattered and light. Here you can see the front and the showers Sunday at 7:00am.