KEEP THAT UMBRELLA HANDY...

May 13, 2018

Friday night another batch of rain (heavy in spots) set up over parts of my area. Local amounts of up to 2" were measured. The heaviest band was roughly north of I-80 and south of HWY 20. In some locations this was actually good news as previous rains had been focusing on other areas, especially northern Iowa.

Speaking of previous rains, look how heavy precipitation has been the past 7 days.

The past 14 days.

The past 30 days not including Friday night and Saturday's rainfall, Notice the range of 10-15" from northern Iowa to 1-2" in central and southern Iowa, just 100 miles away.

The soil moisture index shows the sharp discrepancy from surplus to deficit in Iowa.

Going forward the pattern continues to look wet much of the next 10-14 days with a slight shift south of the heavier rains to the deficit regions. Here's the 500mb pattern that will cause the widespread wetness with confluent flow to the north and a sharp nearly stationary boundary across the Midwest.

The GFS shows this for total precipitation the next 16 days.

The ensemble members of the GFS (GEFS) and the EURO (EPS) are both in the heavy precipitation camp. Below is the 16 day ensemble run of the GEFS.

The EPS ensemble is similar over a 15 day period.

It's really quite impressive how much of the country east of the Rockies will see above to much above normal rainfall. It's important to note it won't rain all the time but there will be regular bouts of rain and at times it will be heavy. Keep that umbrella handy! Roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails