© 2019 Terry Swails

AVERAGES COMPRISED OF EXTREMES...

May 15, 2018

We've experienced some pretty extreme weather the past couple of months going from one extreme to another. It started with April which turned out to be one of the coldest and snowiest on record. Check out the April temperature departures.

Then came May and the cold pattern flipped. Even with the recent cool weekend, May is off to record warm start in many parts of the central United States. Here's the May departures.

Going forward, no changes are expected in the overall warmth the rest of May. Here's the days 0-5, 5- 10, and 10-15 temperature departures from the GEFS ensembles.

The other important facet of the weather that's changed for my area is the flip from dry to wet conditions. As I've stated numerous times on this page, April was the driest on record in Cedar Rapids with a monthly total of just .43". 

 

Look what's fallen the past 7 days. Widespread amounts of 2-5"

A large portion of that came Sunday night in my central counties where I personally had over 2.2" at my house. Combined with the previous nights total I'm at 3" in 2 days. Quite a change from .43" in 30 days.

The pattern looks to continue on the wet side much of the next 2 weeks. The GFS depicts 16 day rainfall totals that look like this.

The GEFS ensemble means show the same trends. In fact, much of the Continental U.S. is wet.

This years April showers came late but we are making up for it in May. Averages are comprised of extremes and the last 2 months are certainly proof of that. Roll weather...TS 

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