DOES WET WEATHER MEAN A COOL SUMMER?

May 17, 2018

I was just looking at the recent run of the EURO weeklies which gives us peak into how our summer will start. The first thing I like to look at with regards to temperatures is precipitation. It's a well documented fact that the areas that end up dry often turn out to be the areas where temperatures are hottest. With that in mind, here's the 46 day precipitation forecast from the model. 

It's plenty wet over the central Midwest which certainly implies a bumper crop growing season ahead. But, wet as it looks it's a period that's typically wet anyway with generous rainfall. In fact, June is the wettest month of the year in my area with an average of 5". The model indicates amounts the next 6 weeks could end up 1-2" above normal. (See below).

More often than not rain is associated with an abundance of clouds and wet soil conditions. Those two factors tend to reduce ambient temperatures. It also increases humidity and the likelihood of muggy weather. Based on the anomalies above I would expect temperatures in the arc from the Plains through the Midwest and Ohio Valley to be near to below normal. The hottest weather would be centered from southern Missouri into eastern Texas. The long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center (the rest of May-July) shows such a trend, especially in the Midwest.

 

However, the 46 day temperature anomalies from the weeklies contradict the idea of cooler than normal weather in the Midwest. Despite the wet look over my region it shows above normal temperatures.

I like the idea of above normal readings in parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma where it's driest, but I think the warmth over the central Midwest is most likely overdone.

 

To sum it up, the rest of May and June look relatively wet and mild. The big question is how wet and just how warm. Time will tell. Meantime more awesome conditions to enjoy! Roll weather...TS 

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© 2019 Terry Swails