STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON...

May 18, 2018

If there ever was a perfect week of May weather this had to be it. Highs every day will end up in the upper 70s to lows 80s. The pleasant temperatures have also been accompanied by mostly sunny skies and a dry fetch of easterly winds. About as good as it gets and the reason why we put up with the long cold winters!

 

Some changes are coming this weekend as the overall weather pattern breaks down later Saturday. The catalyst will be a short wave that rides the jet northeast into Iowa Saturday night. By then moisture will increase dramatically with 70 degree dew points reaching into far southern Iowa.

Highs in the 80s and 90s will pool ahead of a surface low and cold front coming out of the central Plains.

The heat and humidity will combine to generate some major instability with CAPE (convective available potential energy) forecast to reach close to 3,500 j/kg. in NE Kansas. That's a ripe environment for strong thunderstorms.

Storm initiation is expected to take place late Saturday afternoon in Nebraska and Kansas. You can see them here in this radar simulation at 7:00pm

By 1:00 am the storms are advancing east towards my area.

At 4:00am they have entered my area.

Finally, by 7:00am Sunday morning the storms are pushing into Illinois.

As far as severe weather goes, SE Nebraska, NE Kansas, SW Iowa, and NW Missouri will be under the greatest risk through Saturday evening. Storms will be more linear after that and could form into an MCS or squall line as the cross my area. If they hold together some strong winds and hail are possible after Midnight. We'll know more in that potential later Friday and Saturday. As of Thursday evening the NWS has a slight risk posted but I think there is a good chance that may be elevated to an enhanced threat Friday. 

Some areas will likely see heavy rain in the stronger storms but the locations are difficult to predict at this early juncture. The NAM shows this for rainfall.

Lots of details to fine tune but at least through Saturday, mild and generally dry conditions will prevail. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails