© 2019 Terry Swails

HEAT OF UNUSUAL MAGNITUDE....

May 25, 2018

An early season heat wave of significant proportions is shown building over the central and southern Plains by the beginning of June. While temperatures here will be hovering around 90 (impressive for the time of year), it's the area from Kansas, Oklahoma, and west Texas that will really get roasted.

 

One of the contributing factors will be the dry weather that's gone on in that part of the country for nearly a year. Soil moisture anomalies of 50 to 100% extend from southern Iowa and WC Illinois through the SW quadrant of the U.S.

Dry ground heats up faster than soils that are wet. Since mid-winter a pool of warm air has been building over the rain starved southwest. That reservoir of warmth is now expanding as an upper level ridge builds over top. Here it is on the GFS June 4th.

At the surface, temperatures are shown reaching spectacularly hot levels with intense highs of 110 to 117 degrees, at least on the GFS. That's ridiculous heat for the start of June.

 

To be clear, I don't see anything close to those readings in my area. However, if the ridge continues to expand there's reason to believe the northern extent of the heat could reach as far north as the central Midwest later in June or July. A couple decent heat waves are certainly possible.

 

The other thing to watch for is a ring of fire pattern that typically forms in the summer on the northern periphery of the hot dome. The next 15 days the GEFS clearly shows how the heavier rains wrap around the heat dome centered over New Mexico.  Under it bone dry blistering conditions exist.

Short term the holiday weekend over the central Midwest will be one of the warmest on record. Saturday through Memorial Day highs of 90 or above are expected. There could be some scattered showers and storms Friday (especially Friday night) with a weak upper air disturbance. After it passes, very warm air aloft should effectively cap the atmosphere keeping thunderstorm chances to a minimum. Welcome to summer! Have a terrific holiday weekend and say thanks to a vet. Roll weather...TS 

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