Around 5:00AM Thursday morning (June 21), astronomical summer officially begins here in the Midwest. Hard to fathom with the weather we've steamed through the past couple of days. If you're looking for a break around my area, I don't see it until Tuesday. That means 2 more days of toast!
Here's what the EURO forecasts for highs Sunday and Monday. Low to mid 90s.
As we always say, it's not the heat it's the humidity. Sure enough dew points will be well into the 70s ensuring heat index values of 100-105 degrees. Here's the forecast dew points Sunday and Monday.
The NWS has issued heat advisories for much of the Midwest through Sunday.
Monday evening the heat is likely to break as a cool front starts advancing southeast. You can see showers and storms developing along it Monday evening.
With all the heat and moisture in place instability will be high. CAPE (convective available potential energy) will be more than sufficient for strong updrafts and thunderstorms. Severe weather is a real possibility with the primary threats being strong winds and heavy rains. Here's what the EURO is showing for CAPE values Monday.
Water vapor is significant with PWAT's exceeding 2" over parts of Iowa and SW Wisconsin. That's nearly 200% greater than normal.
The slow moving front and high moisture levels are likely to produce heavy rains in some part of my area and the central Midwest Monday night. Des Moines is already concerned about the threat Sunday night to my northwest. They posted this regarding the excessive rainfall potential.
If it ain't one thing it's another. In this case it's the heat Sunday and Monday and the heavy rain and severe weather concerns Monday night. It's always something. PS. It's Father's Day and I would like to wish all dad's (mine in particular) a happy Father's day. My dad "Boo" has always been a role model and a source of great pride. Here's to you dad. Roll weather...TS