© 2019 Terry Swails

NO TWISTING OR TURNING....

July 5, 2018

For the first time since 2005, and only the second time on record, no one was killed by tornadoes in the U.S. in either May or June.

 

Those are typically two of the deadliest months for tornadoes, along with March and April. Official U.S. tornado records date back to 1950.

 

Although we have a way to go, peak season is over and the U.S. could see its least deadly year for tornadoes on record: So far in 2018, tornadoes have killed only three people. The most recent was on April 13 in Louisiana, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

 

An average of 71 Americans are killed each year by tornadoes, based on data from 1987 to 2016. As recently as 2011, more than 550 fatalities were reported, 160 in the EF5 Joplin, Missouri tornado.

 

Based on the official database, the year with the fewest tornado deaths was 1986, when 15 people died. Unofficial records – from before 1950 – show that in 1910, only 12 people were killed by tornadoes.

 

Not surprisingly, the lack of tornado deaths coincides with a very quiet year for twisters overall. So far, there have been 571 reports of tornadoes across the U.S. this year. (That number is preliminary and will likely be reduced once duplicate reports are discounted.)

This year's percentile ranking is about 5% of the annual trend and close to the all-time minimum.

Below's the rough log of tornadoes reported so far this year. April has been the most active month followed by May. Most of the tornadoes reported have been weak, under the EF3 threshold.

As mentioned, the peak of the tornado season has passed so no matter what happens going forward, this years numbers will most likely be some of the lowest on record. One thing is for sure, the pattern won't be favorable for tornadoes over the central Midwest the next 2 weeks.

 

After a break from the heat and humidity this weekend, it returns with renewed vigor early next week and will be in place through at least mid-July. The driving force will be an upper level high (heat dome) that meanders around the nations mid-section during that period. You can see it here on the EURO July 16th.

Here's the temperature anomalies forecast on the EURO. Some of the warmest weather centered on the upper Midwest.

With the upper level high and its heat overhead, the air over much of the Midwest will be forced to sink and compress. When you do that to a gas like air it heats up. In this case it will not only be hot at the surface, but in the upper levels as well. That's known as a cap and it will make it difficult for thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, with the cool air necessary to produce severe weather and tornadoes long gone, that type of weather is pretty much out of the picture.

 

Also notice how the capping aloft greatly reduces rainfall in this 15 day forecast from the EURO.

To sum it up, the dog days known for hot, humid, but drier conditions look to arrive right on schedule. The hazy lazy days of summer are on the way. Roll weather...TS

Share on Facebook
Share on Twitter
Please reload

ARCHIVED POSTS
Please reload

RECENT POSTS

December 6, 2019

Please reload