© 2019 Terry Swails

FALL COULD GET AN EARLY FOOTHOLD....

July 10, 2018

Don't look now but fall is closing in fast. Meteorological fall encompasses the months of September through November and we're only 7 weeks away as the calendar flies. That being the case, I'm starting to see models and hints of what's to come in 2018.

 

For the most part, the longer range climate models are in good agreement showing cooler than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Here's the soil moisture enhanced climate model for August-October. I like it because it uses soil moisture to derive its forecasts, an important factor when it comes to both temperature and precipitation patterns. It's very bullish on colder than average readings for much of the nation. Rainfall not so much.

Below you will find the precipitation and temperature breakdowns for the next 3 months from the enhanced moisture model.

 

August:

September:

October:

The Japanese climate model know as the Jamestec indicates this for September-November. In a broad sense, a similar solution for the Midwest...cooler and drier.

The United States climate model known as the CFSv2 is trending the way of the other models depicting this for September-November. 

 

Temperatures:

Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center produces the official NOAA outlook for the U.S. It's decidedly an outlier. Here's what it shows for fall temperatures. It has the whole country with greater than average probabilities of above normal temperatures

Precipitation shows no tendency to be above or below normal during the fall period.

 

For my money, I like the models that are trending cooler and drier this fall. I suspect the mean trough will be over the east coast leading to a northwest flow over the Midwest. That will limit moisture and keep the worst of any late season heat suppressed to the west and south. Additionally a weak El Nino is in the works and that's often a precursor to a cool fall, especially late October and November. Time will tell! Roll weather...TS

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