BAD TO THE BONE....
What you're looking at here is the best weather team in Iowa...hands down.
I'm in my 41st year of TV weather and I have never assembled a group of talent as solid as this. 3 meteorologists (Rebecca just earned her masters degree) totally committed to making and delivering the most accurate forecasts in the state. These guys are hungry for success and to be the best you have to have passion, a willingness to learn, and a work ethic that's second to none. These guys come to play everyday and they keep me young with their enthusiasm. More important, they are quality people with exceptional skills. (Nick is also the tallest meteorologist in the Midwest). I love these guys and wanted them (and you) to know how proud and fortunate I am to have them on my team. Roll weather my brothers and sister, you are bad to the bone!
That brings me to my dog, Nimbus Robert Swails, AKA the weather dog. He was feeling the heat Thursday. I took the garbage out and when I came back into the garage there he was sitting in the front seat of the car with the air conditioner running. He was ready for the pool.
Well, who wouldn't fall for a face like that. Off we went and this is how he spent the afternoon, floating for 2 hours on an air mattress. He had a couple ice water cocktails and thoroughly enjoyed himself. Of course, he applied plenty of sun screen, especially on his nose and ears. What a ham!
Nimbus will no doubt be back at the pool Friday as my area gears up for another steamy day. Here's the the expected heat index's. Triple digit numbers.
With so much moisture and instability thunderstorms will become more of a player around the central Midwest Friday evening into Saturday. CAPE, which we use to measure instability is substantial by Friday evening.
Thunderstorms should fire along the CAPE gradient late Friday and then gradually progress southeast Saturday and Saturday night. With water vapor at tropical levels some areas will see significant and beneficial rains of 1-2". However, without evidence of a large well organized MCS yet, it's difficult to pinpoint exact amounts and their location. It's possible some areas could come up on the short end of the stick while others get a significant drink. Such is the nature of mid-summer thunderstorms.
To prove my point, here are 4 different models and their individual rainfall forecasts.
The 3k hi-res NAM:
Last but not least, the EURO: