© 2019 Terry Swails

THE REST OF SUMMER, KINDER AND GENTLER....

July 17, 2018

For quite some time I've been pushing the idea of a pattern change that would bring cooler air to the Midwest the second half of summer. In fact, I've gone so far as to say we've experienced the worst of this years heat and humidity.

 

That point was reinforced on Monday nights run of the EURO weeklies. Here's its 46 day temperature forecast through August 31st.

That's a radical change from the months of May and June which combined produced temperatures departures like this.

There's good teleconnective support for the cooler weather. The EURO'S MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) forecast has us going into phase 6 of the MJO this weekend and that's a cool one in July. Follow the dotted green lines to see the progression. The temperature departures In July and August are very similar to what the weeklies are showing above.

The CFSv2 climate model is also onto the trend. Here's it's temperature departures broken into 10 day increments for the next 30 days.

 

Day 0-10:

Days 10-20:

Days 20-30: 

Precipitation this time of year tends to be more scattered in nature as the primary storm track runs across the upper Midwest. Typically that limits cool air intrusions which help ignite showers and storms. This is the 500mb jet stream forecast in 7 day increments for the next 4 weeks on the weeklies.

 

Week 1:

Week 2:

Week 3:

Week 4:

Below normal heights are shown through most of the period indicating a storm track that's displaced south of the typical seasonal position. That means precipitation will likely be more widespread than usual over the Midwest and amounts are likely to be near to above normal. The weeklies show this through August.

These are the forecast precipitation anomalies. Most of the Midwest above normal on rain the next 46 days. 

The writing appears to be on the wall. The rest of July and most of August will average cooler than normal and in many areas should be wetter than normal. We'll see. Roll weather...TS

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