© 2019 Terry Swails

COOL IS THE NEW RULE....

July 26, 2018

Up until last week it had been an uneventful severe weather season. Here in Iowa that changed dramatically last Thursday when at least 12 tornadoes skipped through the central part of the state. That nearly doubled the yearly total of 15. Here's the Marshalltown tornado which was rated EF3.

Below you can see the damage ratings around the city. Lot's of 2 and 3 in a very populated area. It was quite fortunate no serious injuries or deaths came directly from the storm. Part of the reason why is the fact tornado warnings were issued for Marshalltown 54 minutes before it struck. Amazing lead time!  

Here's a view of the Pella storm, also rated an EF3. Not a single U.S. tornadoe this year has been rated higher than EF3 strength. Iowa now has 2 of those. A big deal since they came July 19th, well after the peak of the season which was lean to begin with.

The damage plots of the Pella storm below. It produced heavy damage on a plant just northeast of Pella. Had it tracked 1 mile further to the SW it would have inflicted significant damage on the city of Pella. Again, very fortunate for that city.

 

Damage at the Vermeer plant on the outskirts of Pella.

I mentioned what a quiet year it's been for severe weather all around the country. Here's the tornado warnings issued for the nation in 2018. The NWS office in Des Moines has issued the 3rd most of any national weather service forecast area.

In Iowa you can see the lions share of the tornado warnings are focused on the central part of the state. Many of these were issued in last weeks outbreak.

When you combine severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings you come up with these totals. Oklahoma leads the way. Nothing surprising there. However, it's been extremely quiet in and around the Great Lakes.

One thing's for sure, the severe weather threat's going to be very limited the next week with a cool weather pattern dominating the Midwest. By Friday morning the GFS shows lows that look like this.

Saturday the GFS is showing this for maximums. Readings in the 60s will be highly dependent on clouds and rain the model is breaking out. I suspect these readings are a bit too cool with the rain being forecast too far northeast. Just the same readings in most of my area will be at least 10 degrees below normal.

From here on out, cool is the new rule the next 7 days. Roll weather...TS

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