STUCK IN A RUT...

Drought doesn't start in a day... and it doesn't end in a day either. For some examples... St. Joseph, Missouri is about 13 inches behind on rainfall (since January 1). Conception, MO is 14 inches behind. For comparison: an area not in the drought, like Cedar Rapids, Iowa, is above normal by about an inch.

Drought will make the ground dry, make it difficult for crops and unfortunately can last for a long time. Here's a look at the soil moisture anomaly across the country for the month of July-

A big 'ol bullseye of dry weather in the drought area. The ground typically turns brown, especially with drought that goes on for months and months. This is a high resolution satellite image from Saturday afternoon. You can see the green ground across much of Iowa and then some brown, darker ground in south central Iowa into northern Missouri.

This then starts to impact the weather. The darker ground will heat up a lot faster. This can be seen from Saturday afternoon's high temperatures (and has happened many times this summer) -

This then does have an impact on rain. No doubt we've seen many instances where the drought stricken areas miss out on the heaviest rain and here's a look at the last 30 days:

With the dry ground there is less moisture around for clouds to form. The warmer surface temperatures can also contribute to a "cap" often leading to storms not being able to develop. This warmer air can also possibly force boundaries further north, lowering the chance for rain in the drought area. These all contribute to the lack of rainfall and worsening drought.

There will be some rain around the Upper Midwest as the new week. Here are three models showing rainfall totals through Tuesday -

Hi-resolution NAM:

NAM:

GFS:

There will be scattered showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. There will be a lot of moisture around for heavy rain and it's possible the drought area gets some rain. However, it takes typically months to climb out of a drought. Especially where the extreme and exceptional drought conditions exist.

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