© 2019 Terry Swails

SAME STUFF, DIFFERENT DAY....

September 3, 2018

The same pattern persists with showers and thunderstorms and the potential for flooding with heavy rain. Saturday into Sunday there was additional heavy rain in the Upper Midwest - particularly across the state of Iowa.

 Zoomed in view on my local area -

 There is additional rain on the way, which is leading to concerns on rivers. Many river and creeks have risen near and south of I-80.

And the concern continues for localized flooding in streets and on rivers. Mainly to do with how much moisture is in the atmosphere. We measure this by precipitable water (PWATS). The moisture content has been way above normal and will stay above normal through the week.

This is an example of Monday evening with PWAT amounts of over 200% above normal! 

 Tropical moisture will be pumped into the Midwest. Below is an animation of the PWATs through the next seven days and you can see the moisture streaming in.

 What we will need to watch is a tropical wave that is currently located southeast of the state of Florida. It may strengthen into a Tropical Storm over the next few days, but regardless will bring in a lot of moisture to the Gulf coast. Here's a look at the outlook from the National Hurricane Center -

This will play a role in the Midwest as that tropical moisture gets pulled up and will continue to keep this high moisture in place as we head into the end of the week and next weekend. So here's a look at the seven day rainfall totals from the GFS and European -

 Some differences in amounts, but most of the heavy rain is centered on Iowa. Where the heavy rain will be will need to be studied on a day by day basis. It's going to be a stormy week and it's going to be warm and muggy.

 

RK

 

 

 

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