THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING....

We've been talking about it and now it's becoming a reality. Very heavy rain has fallen in short periods of time across parts of the Midwest. Localized flooding and some river flooding has occurred. Here's a look at the precipitation from Friday night into Saturday morning:

The proof is in the pudding... the numbers. Here's a closer look at my local area for the precipitation Friday to Saturday morning -

What's driving this is multiple complexes of thunderstorms developing and very high moisture level. For example, here's a look at the precipitable water (PWATS) amounts from Saturday evening. This levels are high for any time of year and impressive for September.. This is allowing for storms to thrive and produce heavy rainfall.

There have been reports of 3 to 5 inches of rain falling in just hours. And here's the result in Iowa county:

There have been reports of flash flooding in parts of Iowa - roads covered in water, gravel roads being washed away and rapid rises on creeks.

And the rain isn't over. Here's a look at our high resolution rapid refresh model (HRRR) Saturday night into Sunday evening:

Thunderstorms will likely "train" once again - or repeat over the same area - and lead to heavy rain into Saturday morning. There will be a break Sunday afternoon with another round Sunday night into Monday. Flooding and flash flooding will be a concern over the next several days.

It's still difficult to pinpoint exactly how much rain there will be in a particular spot. Here's a look at the rainfall through Monday on three different models -

3km NAM -

NAM:

GFS:

There are similarities in amounts, but differences in placement of the rain. Additionally there could be locally higher amounts with some of the stronger thunderstorms.

Keep an eye out for any Flash Flood Warnings that are posted in your area and we'll continue to monitor any flooding along with the rivers.

RK