The end is in sight! Finally the remarkable September weather pattern that has soaked much of the central Midwest is breaking down. Here's how it looked from space Tuesday evening. An immense tropical plume of deep moisture flowing directly into the Midwest.
The 500mb jet stream flow that's been in place for more than a week and caused the soggy weather looks like this. Note the huge ridge over the mid-Atlantic that's drawn the moisture into the central Midwest.
Tuesday it was producing water vapor levels (PWAT'S) that were in the top 5% for early September.
Now look at the 500mb change that's expected Sunday. The flow flattens and the connection to the Gulf is cut off.
Notice how the deep moisture gets shunted to the south as the east coast ridge gets flattened. PWAT's are down over an inch, more in line with what's typical.
Before this happens scattered showers and storms will gradually drift southeast out of the region Wednesday along with a frontal boundary. With lingering moisture some of the stronger storms will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour. However, it appears the rains will be scattered enough to produce limited flash flooding.
The big wildcard in our future is what happens to the remnants of Gordon. The remaining energy of the tropical storm is expected to push NW into Missouri before making a turn to the northeast. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Notice the cone of uncertainty regarding the track expands greatly Saturday and Sunday ranging from NC Iowa to SC Illinois.
What will determine the eventual path is the strength of a high that builds into the Midwest Thursday and Friday. The GFS shows the high Saturday over the Great Lakes forcing the tropical remnants and heavy rain into Missouri and Illinois. Bad for them but good for my area.
Anyway, if I'm reading the cards correctly the heavy rain threat in my local area ends by Wednesday night and the forecast looks cooler and drier through the weekend. A well deserve break! Roll weather...TS