The ridge over troubled waters. If you build it in September, the hurricanes will come. And after a sleepy start to this years tropical season in the Atlantic, things are about to explode in what could be a big way. Here's the building ridge at 120 hours over the Atlantic. To the south is Florence which is expected to become a major hurricane by early next week.
As Florence is forced to cut westward under the strong high it's put on a trajectory that will take it to the mid-Atlantic coastline. With proper venting and minimal shear the storm is likely to strengthen and become formidable. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) has it as a major hurricane at day 5 on a track towards the Carolina's.
Notice the hurricane model's spaghetti plots coming into good agreement on the storm striking the southeast U.S. coast.
The GEFS ensembles are showing similar solutions.
Many of the major models have Florence as a category 4 or 5 storm day 5. That would mean at a minimum sustained winds of 135 mph.
Aside from the damaging winds near landfall, a huge area of excessive rains are anticipated from New England and the Ohio Valley southward to the Carolina's.
Back here in the Midwest the pattern gets blocked by the ridge and the eventual track of the hurricane through the east coast. That means a good week coming with no significant rain anywhere in my local area. That could not come at a better time!
Temperatures in the next 6-10 days will also start to increase over the Midwest so that by the end of next week conditions should be warm and dry. Here's the day 5-10 temperature departures on the EPS ensembles of the EURO.
The 10 day meteogram in Cedar Rapids shows the warming trend nicely.
All things considered, some fine September weather is on it's way to the Midwest. No doubt we've earned it! Have a solid weekend and roll weather...TS