© 2019 Terry Swails

IS WINTER SHOWING ITS HAND?....

September 22, 2018

There's some interesting atmospheric changes underway that are leading me to wonder if winter is beginning to show its hand. It's about this time when patterns begin to establish themselves and if so, winter has real potential to be a cold one.

 

Take a look at what the JMA (Japanese Meteorological Agency) model is showing for winter. Notice the blocking ridge in western Canada and the downstream trough over the east-central U.S. That's a strong indicator of a cold winter ahead east of the Rockies.

Another relatively new model known as the Pioneer (developed by Joe D'Aleo of Weatherbell) also depicts a similar solution. The yellow colors show the ridge, blues the trough in the same general area. 

The corresponding temperature departures on the Pioneer are bullish on widespread cold.

Now to the future. Lets look at what's forecast in the next couple of weeks. Here's the 500mb jet forecast for Thursday September 27th. That looks very much like the winter upper air forecasts above.

So do the temperature departures associated with such a 500mb pattern.

Even the CFSv2 which is the one model calling for a blow torch winter is showing the October chill. Here's its temperature departures days 0-10.

Days 10-20 (through October 11th) are even colder further south and east!

The point I'm making is that the chill that's coming (especially later next week) is the result of an upper air pattern that's very similar to what several of our best models are showing for this winter. I've seen other signals and teleconnections to believe this is a real possibility.

 

By the way, if the winter is colder it substantially increases the chances for snowfall. I fully expect this winters snows to be at least average and it sure wouldn't surprise me to see more than that. Time will tell. Roll weather and have a fine weekend....TS

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