Another fall cold front is on the way and it will bring some noteworthy changes the next 24-36 hours. Already warm moist air is charging into the Midwest on southerly winds that brought highs of 75-80 Monday afternoon. Here's the dew points early Tuesday afternoon. Well into the 60s pre-frontal.
With temperatures reaching into the 70s before the arrival of the cold front there is enough CAPE for scattered thunderstorms. However, it will be a race against time to get and maintain the instability in my area before the cold front cuts it off . The best chances for storms will exist from far eastern Iowa into Illinois and points east.
The simulated radar at 4pm does show showers and storms increasing from Wisconsin and eastern Iowa into Missouri.
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk outlook in place for the potential of severe storms during the afternoon and evening. If the front is faster the worst of the storms could be further east in Illinois. We'll know more on that by mid-morning Tuesday.
Regardless of what happens, the cold front has some pop and temperatures will hit the skids again late Tuesday afternoon or evening. The NWS grids have temperature in Cedar Rapids going from 74 at 2pm to 58 at 8 and 47 at 7am.
Once here the colder air looks to dominate the pattern into the weekend. In fact, the EURO has highs dropping to the 50s Saturday and Sunday, a good 10-15 degrees below normal.
As for precipitation, most of it in the short term falls Tuesday. After that things stay relatively dry until some point in the weekend. Then the pattern gets bogged down once again as the fight between warm and cold air sets up over the central Midwest. If trends hold, this is a set-up that should once again bring heavy rain to the Midwest next week. The EURO is very bullish showing 2-5" amounts for much of my local area. This is the EURO 10 day rainfall forecast centered on Iowa.
There's lots going on as the atmosphere continues its transition toward winter. A fast and furious period ahead. Fun for me. Roll weather...TS