WET BEHIND THE EARS....

September 28, 2018

Friday is shaping up to be a pretty ugly day around much of the central Midwest with showers, clouds, and very cool temperatures. Highs are not likely to get out of the upper 40s to low 50s according to the latest model guidance. Here's what the GFS has for daytime highs. Other models are even cooler!

The showers that occur Friday are expected to be light with the highest totals not much more than 1/10".

Friday night skies clear and scattered frost is still a good possibility come Saturday morning. Here's the lows forecast by the 3k NAM. Some area will likely require frost advisories.

 

Beyond Saturday the general consensus is for a front to meander around the Midwest for much of next week. From time to time showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to roam the area. Signals are there for more significant rain where the front sets up shop. The Climate Prediction Center has this for 6-10 day precipitation.

And this for days 8-14.

The 500mb jet stream pattern that generates the heavy rain potential looks like this. Notice the ridge over the SE and the trough over the NW That's a classic ring of fire set-up that's more typical of summer than October 1st.

CPC has this for 6 day rainfall amounts.

The EURO shows this out 10 days.

The GFS has this over 16 days. 

Once again the threat is there for renewed rises on area rivers and streams where the heaviest rains materialize. 

 

Long range guidance depicts the wet pattern well into November. The EPS EURO weeklies have this for 46 day precipitation ending November 12th.

That's an exceptionally wet period and the 46 day EPS weekly departures show it nicely. Much of the Midwest will be wet behind the ears!

If the weeklies are correct this is going to be a cool period as well. Here's the 46 day temperature departures.

Snow is likely to become a factor by the end of the period too, especially in the upper Midwest. This is the 46 day mean snowfall forecast ending November 12th.

 

Whether it's in the short or long term, it appears as if the Midwest is in for active times ahead with frequent precipitation and temperatures that end up on the short end of the stick. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails