October is here and it's not typically a month we talk about the threat of heavy rains. In fact, this is the time of year that the average precipitation per month really starts to go down. Here's an example using Cedar Rapids.
Most of the Upper Midwest averages around 2-3 inches of rain in October, which is about an inch lower than September. However this past September was very wet and many locations saw their wettest September ever.
You can see the entire Midwest was above normal for precipitation in September and many spots were 200-300% above normal! In fact, Waterloo had not just it's wettest September ever, but it's wettest MONTH on record with 13.03". And records go back to 1895.
Now this is a sign that the ground is saturated and that's why there were two rounds of flooding and concerns with the threat of heavy rain over the next week or so.
The Weather Prediction Center is showing a big swath of 3-6 inches of rain in parts of the Midwest over the next week. The first chance for rain is underway with a round Sunday night into Monday as a warm front lifts north.
Some storms could be strong especially close to the front and an area of low pressure that will form during the day Monday. The highest chances will be near and east of the Mississippi River.
This front will then stall out in the Midwest and will be the focus of multiple rounds of rain through the week. Due to this front temperatures will also be fluctuating up and down. It will be difficult to nail down temperatures and where the highest chances of rain will be - this will be determined on a day to day basis.
October will be coming in like a lion, time will tell if it'll go out like a lamb!