IS THAT LIGHT I SEE....

October 5, 2018

The heavy rains that have been falling for more than a month have been the by-product of the Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO) far far away in the tropical Pacific. With significant amplitude in phase 8 its been favorable for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in the Midwest. Now it's forecast by the EURO to start transitioning into phase 1. Follow the green dots below.

Even though it's entering a different phase the results are going to be the same the next week. More wet and generally mild weather. Here's the phase correlations for phase 1 with regard to temperature and precipitation in the month of October.

This is the 500mb jet stream pattern driven by the MJO that's been (and will continue) to funnel moisture into the Midwest. The eastern ridge and western trough teleconnect strongly to wet weather in the central U.S.

Going back to the MJO (first graphic, green dots), note the EURO eventually progressing from phase 1 to phase 2 in about a week. The phase correlations of phase 2 translate to cooler temperatures over the eastern half of the nation and much drier weather across the Midwest. This would be great news for farmers with work to do in rain soaked fields

The reason why this should happen is tied to the resulting flip in the 500mb jet. A ridge builds in NW Canada and a downstream trough gets established over the east. A BIG change.

The NW flow would also open the door for shots of colder weather. The EURO EPS weeklies have this for temperature departures October 14-21. That coincides nicely with where the MJO is shown going

At least for me, confidence is growing that the wet stormy pattern is in the process of breaking down by the end of next week. How long this lasts remains to be seen but there is hope of a reprieve of a week or two. Light at the end of the tunnel?

 

Unfortunately, the short term remains problematic with some big rain numbers still on the board. The next significant event arrives Friday night. The Weather Prediction Center has a moderate risk of flash flooding in parts of my area ( a 20-50% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles of a point. The graphic below is from the NWS in the Quad Cities.

Here's the area currently under a flash flood watch Friday night.

The weather Prediction Center has this this for total rainfall the next 7 days.

I've been talking about this potential for week, now it's time for the show to begin. Here's hoping this passes without too much in the way of trouble. Roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails