© 2019 Terry Swails

EVERYTHING BUT THE KITCHEN SINK....

October 6, 2018

What a remarkable period of weather the past 60 days have been. Many parts of the Midwest remain swamped by relentless rains that are extremely rare for so late in the growing season. Here's an over view of how much rain has fallen over that 2 month period centered on Iowa.

A closer inspection shows much of my area receiving 15-25" of rain. 

These amounts are as much as 400 percent (4 times) greater than average.

This is just the past 30 days. Normal would have been 3-4"

A number of exceptional factors have combined to create the excessive totals but the one ingredient that's been consistent is the anomalously high levels of moisture.  Friday night PWAT values (precipitable available water) were at 1.7" into SE Iowa. That's about maxed out for early October. Amazingly, amounts like that are forecast to be around well into next week. Storms that can take off in that type of tropical environment are sure to be heavy rain producers.

The threat of more heavy rain will exist from time to time around my local area into Wednesday of next week. The Weather Prediction Center shows this for total rainfall the next 7 days.

Another intriguing player in the long term is Hurricane Sergio. It's another of those rare storms in the Pacific, well off Mexico that's expected to recurve and head for the Midwest. The residual moisture and energy is expected to phase with a digging west coast trough to create a potent disturbance in about a week. You can see the well developed eye of Sergio in the satellite imagery below.

The GFS ensemble guidance shows the spaghetti plots and mean track of Sergio into the Midwest 

The EURO is similar with its ensemble guidance.

The GFS shows this for Sergio's remnant surface features and attendant precipitation next Friday.

 

The GFS even shows a deformation band with snow northwest of the low pressure track. It even has a bit in Iowa but the chances of that are slim and none. However, much colder air is a certainty once the storm passes. 

Take it from someone whose seen a lot of weather, this is some pattern. In fact, I rarely say this but it's burning me out. A nice quiet week would go a long way with me. Just a breather. Roll weather...TS 

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