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WHEN WILL IT STOP?

It seems like there's no end in sight to the rainy pattern we've been stuck in for weeks and weeks and weeks now. There is an end in sight, but we have more rain - and heavy rain at that - to get through over the next three days. It's been a wet end to summer and beginning to fall. Check out the rainfall just for the first week of October!

This chart is courtesy of the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities and it shows how the rainfall for the first seven days of October compares to average. Many areas are going to exceed their average monthly rainfall by the time this week is done.

A boundary is going to be over the Central United States and will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Here's the flash flood guidance for the next three days:

The red (moderate) means a 20-50% chance of exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. The reason why this threat is so high has to do with the available moisture. It's downright tropical and an airmass that is more typical of June or July than October!

Two inches to work with will lead to heavy rain... that will add up quickly. Here's a simulated radar on one of our higher resolution models through Wednesday.

Here's the rainfall output from that model:

Some locally higher amounts will be possible, but in general a widespread 1-3" of rain is expected through Wednesday. Thereafter, the aforementioned front passes to the south and drier air will move in.

Unfortunately flooding issues will likely persist into the weekend as water travels downstream across the rivers. Just how high the rivers get will be dependent on how much rain falls and exactly where. Something we can't really know until it happens.

Stay dry... and know there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

RK

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© 2020 Terry Swails