© 2019 Terry Swails

CRACK THAT WHIP....

October 10, 2018

Whip it good! That's the theme of today as as a potent fall cold front cracks the whip on the wet weather pattern that's drenched the Midwest for more than a week. It all starts with the jet stream and you can compare today with what's forecast next Monday. The western trough is replaced by a ridge.

 

Today. 

Next Monday. A total reversal.

The resulting NW flow aloft cuts off the deep moisture that's resulted in our excessive rains. Here's the PWAT's (precipitable available water vapor) Tuesday.

Now look at next Monday. Moisture has left the building...in this case the Midwest.

See the expansive surface high pressure that brings dry air into the Midwest.

This should ensure a decent stretch of dry weather that's desperately needed for the harvest as well as rivers and streams that are in flood. This is the 8-14 day precipitation outlook from CPC. That's a sight for sore farmer's eyes.

Temperatures are also looking cooler, a significant change from recent weeks.

On the topic of cooler weather. Check out these lows Friday on the NAM. Coming in around the freezing mark.

Late afternoon readings are not much better near 40. 

Some models even indicate the chance of a rain snow mix with a weak disturbance Friday/Friday evening. This would be a very light precipitation event if indeed it occurs. As for snow, the EURO shows some minor accumulations. I'm very skeptical of this solution but decided to get it out there as there is some support for the general idea. I will re-address in my next post.

Suffice it to say Wednesday will end windy and much colder than it starts. Come Friday highs will be about 40 degrees colder. I like that party. Roll weather...TS

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