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IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR FOR YOU KNOW WHAT....

Numerous times on this site we've talked about the wet weather that's plagued the central Midwest since late summer. For some, the wet conditions have existed much of the year. Here are the precipitation departures for 2018 so far. The wettest conditions have been centered on northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin.

I came upon this graphic from the Iowa Mesonet showing the months of September and October as the all-time wettest in the Northeast Iowa Climate Division. Records go back to 1893. It's hard enough to break an all-time record for any month, let alone do it back to back. It's also interesting to note that 7 of the 12 monthly records have been set in the past 10 years. That does support the climate change theory of increased atmospheric water vapor in recent decades!

After a relatively quiet run of weather the past 3 weeks an increasingly energetic pattern will bring heavy precipitation back to the Midwest the next 7 days. You can see 3 anomalously deep troughs centered on the region that will drive the stormy weather.

Sunday:

Tuesday:

Next Friday:

Between the 3 systems, widespread precipitation totals of 1-3" are likely. The EURO has a 90-99% chance of at least an inch centered on my local area.

The odds are at 40-50% for 2.00"

The EURO shows this for 10 day total precipitation.

The GFS has this.

Both the EURO and GFS have a significant change to sharply colder temperatures that will reach winter-like levels by Wednesday of next week. Look at the day 5-10 temperature departures.

The GFS:

The EURO for the same period:

This got my attention. The operational EURO has lows next Sunday morning in the single digits. Wow!

If this were to happen it would produce temperatures 30-35 degrees below normal. Here's the anomalies.