© 2019 Terry Swails

WEEKEND SNOW, IMPROVEMENT BY THANKSGIVING....

November 15, 2018

Be fore I get to the snow system, it's hard to believe (at least for me) that Thanksgiving is only a week away. The early read on the weather this year is positive in the sense temperatures are expected to be mild and precipitation minimal over much of the nation. Here's the Thanksgiving surface maps generated by the latest GFS and EURO. Good consistency!

Here's the highs forecast by both models. Within 1 degree of each other here in Cedar Rapids. Of more importance, readings are right around 50. That would be the warmest in about 20 days!

 

 

This is the 10 day meteogram from the GFS for Cedar Rapids.  It shows the 50 Thanksgiving. It also shows 4" of snow falling later Friday night and Saturday. (See the blue line at the bottom)

Needless to say, before the Thanksgiving warm-up there are some issues to deal with over the weekend that could include poor travel conditions.

 

The snow threat is tied to a clipper like disturbance that's projected to dig southeast across the central Midwest. The GFS shows the snow band moving southeast Saturday at daybreak. Winds will also pick up as cold air and an expansive Arctic high tightens the gradient. Some blowing snow is certainly a possibility Saturday where snow falls and temperatures crash.

There's still some doubt on the final track and intensity of the system as high resolution models such as the NAM and 3K NAM keep the snows further north than the operational runs of the GFS and EURO. We should see a shift in one or the other by Thursday evening. As it stands now, here's the various snowfall forecasts.

 

The GFS 

 

The NAM

THE 3K NAM

The EURO

The Weather Prediction Center shows this for odds of at least 1" of snow. As of Wednesday night 60-70% for much of my area.

Tomorrow will be a telling day with better data getting into the grids. There's a good chance that some part of the central Midwest will eventually go under a winter weather advisory if trends hold. Until next time, roll weather...TS 

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