TO SNOW OR NOT TO SNOW....

November 16, 2018

To snow or not to snow...that is the question? In the case of the coming system models have been consistently in 2 camps for most of the week. The hi-res NAM and NAM3k have been north with their snow band in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. The GFS and EURO a lot further south encompassing the area along and north of I-80, much of my turf. 

 

I waited all day long for something to give and tonight the NAM and NAM 3k both made a significant shift south. The end result (with still some window for change) is that it looks like much of my region will see accumulating snow starting late Friday night and lasting into Saturday morning. I would expect that some areas, especially north of HWY 30 will go under winter weather advisories where 2 to perhaps 4" of snow is likely. South of there totals of an inch or less are expected, assuming the track holds.

 

The Weather Prediction Center is now posting these odds of at least an inch of snow.

This for 2 or more inches

This for 4 or more inches

Here are the latest snowfall forecasts from the Thursday night model runs.

 

The GFS

The NAM

The 3k NAM

The EURO

Once the snow moves out the wind and cold follows. A huge 1041mb high is shown building southward Saturday afternoon. The tight pressure gradient will whip up strong north winds that will usher in another blast of cold air.

Here are the forecast lows Saturday night.

 

The wind chills are even uglier.

This wintry mess all holds off until late Friday night so the daytime will be dry but cool. After that, the rest of the weekend will look and feel like the dead of January. Roll weather...TS 

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails