© 2019 Terry Swails

WHAT A START TO WINTER, AND IT'S STILL A MONTH AWAY!

November 17, 2018

The disturbance that's brought (or will bring) snow to much of my area will beat a hasty retreat early Saturday. Little if any additional accumulation will occur after 7:00 am as the snow band exits the south.  It will be interesting to see how the models did on their forecasts. These are the last ones in Friday night before the flakes began to fly.

 

The 3k NAM.

THE GFS 

THE NAM 

The HRRR 

 

 

The EURO

This is just another in a series of early season snow systems that's given much of the nation a very early taste of winter. Just look at the snow that's already fallen since October 1st. About 2/3rds of the nation has had measurable snow.

Here's the snow cover reported the morning of November 16th. This does not include any snow that fell Friday/Friday night. Adding that into the mix I would estimate more than 30% of the country has snow cover. Last year at this time it was only 9%.

The rest of the weekend will be quiet but cold. Strong northeast winds will pull the chill across the snow fields. Wind chills Saturday night will be in the single digits and teens.

On a positive note, by the middle of next week the jet stream will de-amplify allowing mild Pacific air a pathway to the Midwest.

Highs will head for the 50s, levels not seen since the beginning of November. The GFS shows this Thanksgiving day.

The surface map is about as quiet as it can be. No storms outside of the Pacific Northwest and excellent travel conditions.

This is the total precipitation forecast by the Weather Prediction Center Tuesday-Thursday of Thanksgiving week.

 Smooth traveling to the Turkey of your choice! Roll weather...TS

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