Snow is going to move in Sunday from west to east across. How much you get has to do with precise positioning of a strong winter storm.
The difference in positioning is what’s leading to differences in the models.
Here’s the latest from the GFS:
The GFS is the most bullish and furthest north. I think the models below are onto the right trend:
And here’s the latest Euro... which has been trending south and just made a northern jog.
This is a movement we have been waiting for, which has given me more confidence in the forecast and track of this storm.
This is starting to come more in line with my thinking for snowfall totals and also more like the other models.
Here’s more of the latest data. The experimental GFS:
The HRRR is also pretty consistent with the models above (note this only goes out through Sunday evening and does not show all the snow through Monday in IL/MO/WI)
We are starting to converge on a solution and see some more agreement. The thinking hasn’t changed much - heaviest snow will be near and south of Highway 30. There will be strong winds and blowing snow. There will be a sharp cutoff - which means any change in the track will lead to big differences in the snowfall.
Now the snow is going to move in and we have to let the cards fall where they may. This has been a challenging storm but it appears now in the final hours we are getting a clearer picture.