At long last it appears we have a winner. For days models have been vacillating back and forth on the track of Sunday's snow storm. The lone bastion of consistency being the EURO. While others struggled to get a handle on the physics and dynamics of the system, the EURO was steady as she goes. All hail the king!
The significance of this development is the fact we now have a very good idea of where the storm is going and how much snow it might produce. To be sure, no model is going to be perfect but from here on out, the EURO is the basis of all things snow on this site.
Here is the new run which came down at noon. A very heavy band of snow (in spots more than a foot) runs from SE Iowa to the NW suburbs of Chicago. It begins early Sunday morning and ends in the evening.
Here's a much tighter view of the EURO centered on my local area.
As you can see this compares favorably to the GFS which now looks this way. The main difference being the EURO is about 30 miles further SE.
We will need to watch in later runs to see that the storm does not make a last minute shift of 30-50 miles north or south. That's not very much in the world of weather but it would make a huge difference on the fringe areas of the storm.
Bottom line is we are getting down to the nut and give or take 50 miles north or south, this is the region under the gun starting Sunday morning. Roll weather...TS