As we're getting the latest data in there is another shift happening. This forecast is going to be a matter of MILES. To account for the heavy snow and strong winds Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect now:
Here's the latest from the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities...
This is pretty similar to my line of thinking right now. There has been another jog now to the south on some of the latest models.
Here's the NAM:
And the hi-resolution NAM:
And here's the latest from the HRRR:
In general, the thinking hasn't changed that the south will be under the gun for the worst of it. However, it's just a matter of miles with a sharp cutoff on the north side of this system. It's game time now and snow will be starting soon...