© 2019 Terry Swails

ANOTHER WEEKEND, ANOTHER POTENT STORM....

November 29, 2018

It's been a November to remember for much of North America thanks to a relentless onslaught of early season cold air. As you can see below the heart of the chill has been centered directly over the nation's bread basket.

High temperatures have been especially cold running 10-12 degrees below normal per day.

In Cedar Rapids 11 of our 28 November days highs have been 32 or below. 7 days have remained in the 20s. 11 lows have been 19 or below (the coldest 9). The highest temperature of the month 53 degrees. Last year not a single high was below freezing and a 71 was recorded on the 24th.

 

Build the cold and the snow will come. That's certainly been the case with seasonal snowfall totals that already look like this. Snow has been reported in every state except Florida. In Kansas City there's already been more snow in November than the entire winter last year.

Some parts of Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois have experienced record November snow. Check out the monthly departures. Many places have had 7 to 10 times there normal snowfall. Northwestern Iowa not doing so well but that area is under the gun this weekend for their crack at heavy snow.

Here's where snow cover was observed Wednesday morning.

That brings us to the next major winter storm and this one is going to be further NW than the last one. Early Indications are that the NW third of Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin are under the gun this time around. Along with snow...sleet and freezing rain could be added hazards. The NAM does show the icing potential below. Probably too far south.

The addition of ice complicates the snowfall forecast as more ice (or rain) limits the amount of snow. For now the Weather Prediction Center is focusing on this area.

With changes likely to come, this is what the EURO is showing for snow.

Now the GFS 

Total precipitation (much of it rain in my area) is quite significant by December standards. Here's what the EURO produces.

Now the GFS

So there you have it, another big wet storm. Sadly the cold air aloft is depleted and I'll spend Saturday watching raindrops instead of snowflakes. Life in the black hole of weather, boy am I in it here. OK, time to cheer up and look to the next storm. Ever the optimist! Roll weather...TS

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