© 2019 Terry Swails

THE KITCHEN SINK COMES TO THE MIDWEST...

December 1, 2018

Less than a week after the big blizzard another major winter storm is on its way to the Midwest. Precipitation will be more widespread than last weekend but the wintry side of the system will be focused further northwest. Other areas will battle, rain, fog, thunderstorms, and gusty winds. In other words, the kitchen sink.

 

As a testament to the power of what's coming, the Storm Prediction Center issued an enhanced risk outlook Friday for severe thunderstorms and potential tornadoes over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley.

Saturday the risk is lower but still significant and further north into Missouri and central Illinois.

The storm will be a slow mover as the upper air low closes off over Iowa in the next 24 hours. You can see the surface progression in 3 phases below. 

 

Friday night.

Saturday noon.

Sunday evening

Unusually high moisture levels for the season will lead to the threat of moderate to occasionally heavy rain and even thunderstorms as far north as my area Saturday. Here's the PWAT's (precipitable water vapor) values which are as high as 1.00" all the way to SE Iowa,

The NWS in the Quad Cities is showing rain totals that look like this,

The GFS has this for precipitation totals.

The NWS in the Quad Cities generated this map showing the thunderstorm risk for my area Saturday

The wintry side of the storm is the NW quadrant and that's where winter storm warnings and advisories are posted.

This is the snowfall forecast from the NWS in Des Moines.

The EURO has this for total snowfall.

Some light icing is also possible early Saturday. The NWS Des Moines is forecasting this,

Another aspect of the storm will be gusty winds. These are the projected maximum wind gusts from the NWS in Des Moines.

At the tail end of the storm cold air will wrap in changing what's left of the rain to light snow or snow showers. Little if any accumulation is expected in my area aside from the far NW, especially north of HWY 20. By early next week temperatures tumble once again as a healthy surge of cold air dives into the Midwest. Roll weather...TS 

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