© 2019 Terry Swails

GATHERING STEAM....SLOWLY

December 8, 2018

If you're looking for excitement in the weather, you won't find much of that around the Midwest through the middle of next week. The dull conditions are the result of a split flow upper air pattern that keeps storms well to the north or south of the area.

Here's what the EURO has for total precipitation through next Wednesday,

The passive set-up appears to break down about December 13th when a more energetic pattern returns to the central United States that could keep things active right up until Christmas. Here's what the EURO EPS ensembles show for total precipitation December 13th-December 21st. Well above normal amounts from my area east.

The GEFS ensembles are a bit lighter but in general agreement.

The climate prediction center also focuses on the same region for stormier weather in its 8-14 day precipitation outlook.

Some of you like your Christmas's white. What are the odds of that. According to NOAA these are the chances in any given year.

Here's some specific data centered on the heart of my area based on the period 1981-2010. They range from roughly 15% in the south to 55% in the north. A few spots slightly higher or lower.

With 17 days until Christmas the EURO EPS has this for total snowfall on its control run. This is through December 21st.

The EPS ensemble mean has this for the same period.

The GEFS ensemble mean has this.

While there's no guarantees at this distance, the major models are at least showing some reason for optimism. The way things go around here, I'll believe it when I see it. Roll weather..TS 

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