Dreaming of a white Christmas? Well, dream away as the prospects of actually seeing it for real are looking mighty meager this year. To be honest, the chances are never that great annually with the odds ranging from 30 to 50% from south to north across my area.
The NWS in the Quad Cities compiled this graphic showing specific odds of selected cities seeing a white Christmas from 1981 to 2010.
As of Friday night, the EURO operational model is still a party pooper showing this for total snow through Christmas day. Best case scenario 1/2". Even that is probably over done.
The operational GFS has this for snow through Christmas. Another ugly shade of brown.
For more than a week models have been mucking around showing surges of cold air and various short waves with some degree of snow potential just before Christmas. However, within the next day the cold is gone or the snow has vanished. Flat out, models are have a "Dickens" of a time getting a firm grip on the pattern. As far as I can tell, the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) is the ace in the hole. Until I see that MJO get into a more favorable winter phase, I think prospects for snow and a white Christmas in my area is nothing more than a dream. Roll weather...TS