© 2019 Terry Swails

DOWNSIZING....

December 28, 2018

The long advertised winter storm is on its last legs but it's behaved as expected. In its wake up to 15" of snow has fallen in parts of Minnesota. Wind gusts up to 50 mph and temperatures in the single digits and teens have produced white out conditions in the Dakotas and NW Minnesota. Blizzard and winter storm warnings are in effect through the early Friday in the areas below.

Here's some preliminary snowfall totals through Thursday evening at 9:00 pm.

Further south showers and even a few thunderstorms produced a soaking winter rain over much of my area and the state of Iowa. Doppler estimates show more than 1.5" of rain just west of Cedar Rapids. A few spots in Iowa picked up more than 2.00". That's more than what typically falls during the entire month of December. Waterloo at last report measured 1.61" from the storm which puts the yearly total over 53.3", an all-time record. By the way, at a typical 10:1 ratio that would have been 16.1" of snow!

The Cedar River in Cedar Falls, Iowa is expected to see a minor crest Sunday. That will be the latest crest on record and the first crest ever during the month of December. The latest crest on record is currently November 2, 2009.

 

The Iowa River in Marengo is expected to reach moderate flood stage Monday.

 

Going forward the pattern is certainly looking more seasonal as colder air pours into the Midwest on the backside of the storm Friday through the end of the year. Some light snow showers or flurries are possible with the arrival of the cold air Friday/Friday evening. Little if any accumulation is expected over my local area. Spots near and north of HWY 20 could see a dusting....worst case scenario 1/2 to 1 inch. The latest GFS shows this for accumulations.

 A reinforcing shot of cold air is due in New Year's Eve. You can see the associated trough on the GFS.

Some light snow is possible but amounts generally look light, something to fine tune this weekend. The ensuing cold is going to be noticeable, especially after the last couple of weeks. These are the forecast temperatures 6pm New Years Day.

Wind chills for the same period look like this. Sub-zero from Cedar Rapids northwest. It would be fair to say we'll be downsizing temperatures in the coming days.

That's all I have for now. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS

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