MY ADVICE, ENJOY THE WARMTH....

January 4, 2019

Before I get to the lean meat of this post just wanted to show this from the Iowa Mesonet. It's the amount of Iowa that's snow covered as of January 2nd. Less than 20% of the state has an inch on the ground and by Saturday that number could be reduced to zero with the unseasonal warmth that's predicted. 

Look at the highs the EURO is calling for Saturday. The January thaw comes early this year.

Be that as it may, if you saw my post Thursday you know that I am still bullish on a winter comeback towards mid-January. I was pleased to see that the new EURO Weeklies are on board with my assessment of the teleconnections and drivers. Here's what it shows for temperature departures in weekly increments through February 14th. Readings remain mild through the 17th and then tank the next 4 weeks. This is a dramatic change if it comes to pass.

 

January 10-17

 

January 17-24

January 24-31 

February 1-7 

February 7-14 

Here's the 500mb jet stream forecasts over the same periods. The common denominator is the change to a ridge over the west and a trough over the central and east. Albeit late, that's the look of the pattern I was anticipating much of winter.

 

January 10-17

January 17-24 

January 24-31 

February 1-7 

February 7-14 

Get a load of this. It's the 46 day temperature outlook. When I first saw it departures were so cold I thought it was a mistake. However, upon closer inspection I do think this is what the model intended to show. If indeed this is correct, that's crazy cold all across North America.

 

You can see why the pattern should turn cold by looking at 3 key teleconnections. The AO (Arctic Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), and EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) are all shown entering strongly negative phases. You can see the individual forecasts and the type of weather associated with each.

 

Here's the negative AO, a big driver in the transition to cold. The control is off the charts negative, more than 5 standard deviations below the baseline

The negative NAO is also headed towards a deep negative state.

The EPO is another important driver and while its a bit slower it too takes a big push into negative territory.

With an MJO trending into cold phases and an evolving stratospheric warming, there is strong evidence for a significant and prolonged period of below normal cold January 20th through at least mid-February.

 

Additionally, with the cold comes increased chances of snow. The 46 day snowfall forecast off the EURO weeklies shows plenty of white gold extending deep into the south.

The EPS mean, a more averaged solution is also bullish. Between the 2 solutions, much of the central Midwest is shown picking up 10-20" of snow over the next 46 days.

Just to be clear, this transition is not likely to happen for another 2 weeks. However, my confidence is growing that winter is alive and well and on its way. In the meantime, enjoy the weekend thaw. Time to take down the Christmas lights and shine up the truck. Roll weather...TS 

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© 2019 Terry Swails