© 2019 Terry Swails

A CHILLING FUTURE. IT'S "SNOW" JOKE

January 19, 2019

Friday's snow system is on the way out. It was big for some in my area, not so much in others. Far northern Iowa was the big winner with 8-12" totals. For me (and much of my region) it was a big disappointment. To be honest, all the models did a lousy job depicting snow amounts south of HWY 20. All showed Cedar Rapids with 7 to 9" but at my house with the snow done I have 4". Usually in a bust like this at least one model showed the lower end totals. Not this time and that figures since it impacts me. Snow and I are as opposite as night and day. Cry all I want, It doesn't change the fact that I expected more and I wasn't good enough to see the reach in the models. Believe me, I'm pretty deflated. Not a good day to be me! I'm eating a big gnarly piece of humble pie

 

Here's some snow totals as of 2:40 AM.

Moving on, I've had a chance to look into what appears to be an Arctic outbreak in roughly a week. Models have been pointing at this for some time and finally the EURO sees it leading to much higher confidence.

 

Here's what it looks like on paper. The 500mb jet is dug deeply into the Midwest. I fact, the coldest air relative to average is centered right over my area where the polar vortex is situated.

Temperatures in much of the region are shown to be 40-48 degrees below normal.

That translate to lows that look like this. 25 to 30 below over most of Iowa.

Wind chills are flat out brutal (deadly is probably a better word) at 55 to 60 below!

Just as remarkable as the wind chills are the highs. The EURO has HIGHS January 27th around 20 below. 

Because this is a week away there's plenty of ways models could make this more tolerable. However, there's no way to sugar coat the significance of such an outbreak of cold air. If indeed it materializes as advertised it could be very unpleasant for a 2-3 day period. We'll need to keep a very close eye on trends in coming days.

 

Last but not least there's a chance that the area could see more snow next Tuesday. There is still some inconsistency in modeling regarding the track and placement of any snow. The latest EURO shows this for accumulations. Keep in mind this is very tentative.

We'll start digging in to that in the next couple days. Meantime, the shovel is ready for my 4" snow. I just have to get up the ambition to pick it up and use it. Have a good weekend everybody and roll weather...TS

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