© 2019 Terry Swails

AN 86 DEGREE WARM-UP, GIMME A BREAK !

January 31, 2019

We all know the saying, if you don't like the weather just wait a day. Well, in this case you might have to wait a few but if modeling is correct temperatures could be 86 degrees warmer by next Monday.  Say what?

Yea, that's what the GFS and EURO are both showing. In the example above the GFS has a low Thursday of 25 below in Cedar Rapids and a high of 61 next Monday. Is it possible we could jump 86 degrees in just over 3 days? My take is...no. With a foot or more of snow in the ground all the way into Missouri, it would take a monumental surge of warmth to eliminate the snow cover and allow such a massive melt-down, especially at the start of February.

 

Most likely what will happen is the warmest air will reside about 5,000 ft up. The cold dense air at the ground will force the warmth aloft creating a stout inversion. Temperatures will dramatically warm but much of the area near and north of I-80 will have a tough time getting out of the 30s and 40s. Maybe I'm out to lunch but I have an extremely difficult time believing highs will reach the upper 50s all the way into northeast Iowa.

 

Whatever happens, in 48 hours my area does get out of the deep freeze and is on the way up. However, there will be a price to pay. As the warmer air returns Thursday afternoon, it's forced up and over the existing cold air. That creates the lift for another round snow. Most amounts should be in the range of 1-2", perhaps a few close to 3". Here's the latest snowfall forecasts.

 

The EURO

The regional perspective of the EURO.

The GFS.

 

The NAM

The 3k NAM

The snow moves out Thursday evening and then the focus turns to the weekend warm-up.  I'll have more on that and how long it holds in my next post. Until then, roll weather...TS

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