© 2019 Terry Swails

NO SIGNS OF SPRING COMING EARLY...

February 2, 2019

While we are going into a mild stretch of winter the next few days, we haven't heard the last of winter. I say this after looking at important long range teleconnections which are strongly pointing another 4-6 weeks of below normal temperatures.

 

Lets take a look at the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). Below is the EURO forecast which cycles the MJO through what's known as the winter cold phases (8,1,2, and 3). You can see the progression by following the dotted green lines. The temperature anomalies associated with each phase are shown on the right side of the diagram. It's a clean sweep for cold.

Adding confidence to the idea of more cold is the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North America) forecasts from Thursday's EURO weeklies. Both are strongly negative and as you can see they too correlate to below normal temperatures in February.

 

Here's the strongly negative EPO forecast followed by the long term February anomalies

Now the negative PNA forecast followed by the long term February anomalies.

With these strong signals it's no wonder the weeklies show this for a 46 day temperature departure ending March 18th.

Even the U.S. based climate model the CFSv2 agrees. Here's what it shows for February departures.

Going out even further, the CFSv2 has this for the next 45 days ending March 18th. Strong evidence winter is far from over!

Snow is a factor too with the EPS control depicting this for 46 day snowfall through March 18th.

The EPS mean looks like this for the same period.

The next potential Arctic outbreak could be in the making for mid-February. This is the 500mb jet stream flow on the EURO ensembles February 15th. Bitter cold air is aimed at the Midwest.

 

5,000 ft temperatures show the cold swallowing the nation once again.

Meantime, a February thaw is underway that will keep temperatures above freezing for about 48 hours. Look for plenty of fog, low clouds and drizzle to accompany the warm-up. It won't be a pretty weekend but it will be the warmest in nearly a month. Roll weather...TS

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