© 2019 Terry Swails

THE END IS NEAR, I SEE LIGHT!

March 12, 2019

The end is near. You heard me. We are coming out of the long dark tunnel of winter. The signs are there that the worst of this harsh winter which has produced all-time record cold and well above normal snowfall is rapidly backing off. Yea, well still have some crummy days and short set-backs, but if the EURO weeklies are right, not many snowflakes. Here's what the 46 day EPS control is showing for total snowfall through April 26th. I bet the last time I saw the weeklies with no measurable snow over a 46 day period in Cedar Rapids was back in September. Can I hear a cheer please!

 

The other piece of positive news is that precipitation,( coming off a record wet fall and winter), is also projected to be below normal. Here's what the EPS control has through April 26th.

The EPS mean is a bit wetter than the control but still below normal.

Here's the precipitation departure associated with the EPS mean. This could really help out with the spring flooding threat which is at extremely high levels.

The only thing missing making this version of the weeklies "really outstanding" are the projected temperatures. As you can see they are still shown at measures a bit below normal through the period. But not by much!

By the way, if you haven't heard this week will bring the warmest air since Halloween to much of my area. Ahead of a powerful low pressure tracking through the Plains strong south winds will transport warm moist air into the region. I'm looking for highs Wednesday to reach into the range of 52-60 north to south across my area. If we do get 55 in Cedar Rapids it will be the first time in 133 days (October 31st) that we've reached that level.

 

Here's a welcome change too. The first 10 days of March averaged 24.2 degrees (14 below normal in Cedar Rapids). The next 7 through the 17th should average close to 44.3. That's going in the right direction.

 

Additionally, Tuesday will be the 60th consecutive day with 1" of snow in the ground here in Cedar Rapids. That streak is good for 19th place on the all-time record. With the coming warmth and rain, I expect the streak to come to an end Thursday at the latest.

The melting snow and several rounds of rain Tuesday night through Thursday could produce significant rises on area rivers and streams. A flood watch is out for much of the area from SW Wisconsin, southern Minnesota, into Iowa and Nebraska.

The latest NAM shows this for rainfall through mid-day Thursday.

Here's the projected snowfall. Far, far away! It's a good thing too since it will be a shut down blizzard in parts of South Dakota and Nebraska where winter storm and blizzard warnings are up.

Well, for once I feel like I've delivered some good news. Now I need to go to work on that looming flood threat. Until next time, roll weather...TS

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