Mark Twain once said, “In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24 hours.” Whenever we enter these "transition" periods the weather can be... pretty funky. Madness is happening on the basketball courts right now and in the atmosphere. The transition to spring will come with warmer temperatures, rain, severe weather, this year flooding will be top of mind. AND we know that wintry weather can always make a comeback (I don't see any of that in the near term at least!).
This past week the weather was pleasant.. warmer temperatures and little precipitation. That has allowed for some of the flood waters to recede around the Midwest.
Unfortunately there are still many areas dealing with flooding. In our neck of the woods it's along the Mississippi where the water still runs high. From the Quad Cities on down the river is in major flood stage.
Unfortunately out to the west, rivers that dealt with record flooding are slowly going down and have been in major flood stage for a week or more...
This is super telling. Check out this graphic the National Weather Service created of all of the Flood Warnings issued just in the last TEN DAYS!
Now the weather has been calm lately, but the pattern starts to turn more active over the next ten days. That means more precipitation and more temperature fluctuations. Here's the next ten days on the GFS. Don't get too fixated on the path and precipitation type with each storm but just not the more progressive pattern here...
Here's a look at the temperatures the next 16 days on the EPS (european ensemble model) for Cedar Rapids, as an example:
In general temperatures remain near and below normal, with the exception of a few days next week. Nothing too out of the ordinary but the above freezing temperatures and precipitation will further aggravate the river situation. What happens to the snow pack up north and exactly where and how much precipitation falls will all play a role in river flooding over the next few weeks.
The National Weather Service is keeping a close eye on the Mississippi in particular over the next few weeks.
The note on the bottom there is exactly what I will be keeping an eye on. Any deviation from the current thinking (big warm up that melts snow faster, heavy rain over the headwaters of the Mississippi) will lead to faster rises.
This flooding is part of the madness as we end March and head into April and is going to be the big story over the next few weeks.