© 2019 Terry Swails

TOUGH TO TURN THE CORNER...

April 2, 2019

The average date of the first 70 degree temperature in Cedar Rapids is March 31st. Its already come and gone. Even worse, the chances of any consistent warmth look small the next 2 weeks (perhaps even 3 weeks) over most of my area. I'll give you 3 reasons why in the form of teleconnections.

 

First there is the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation). It's forecast by the EURO to be largely negative through April 23rd.

The negative EPO phase teleconnects to below normal temperatures in April.

Second is the AO (Arctic Oscillation). It is also forecast to spend the next 3 weeks in a negative phase.

Here's the temperature departures with the negative AO. Even colder that the EPO.

Third, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is also forecast to take a lengthy tour through its negative phase.

The associated temperature anomalies are again below normal through much of the next 3 weeks. 3 strikes and you out!

Another factor that will hinder warm-ups in the foreseeable future is the high moisture content of the soil. Many parts of the Midwest are in the 99th percentile for wetness indicating the saturated nature of of the ground after a wet fall and winter.

It's an accepted fact that wet soil conditions retard warming and that's the primary reason the CAS index calls for below normal temperatures this April over the wettest parts of the Midwest.

When I say temperatures will be below average I don't mean every day. However, when you break it down there will likely be far more cool days than warm ones going out to April 23rd.

 

The best chances of seeing above normal readings comes late this week and into the weekend when highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are possible. Should things go really well a few spots could approach 70 Sunday in the south. You can see the warmer period in the EURO's day 0-5 temperature departures.

However, the following 10 days don't look as promising. Here's the day 5-10 departures.

The day 10-15 departures are even worse.

If the cool temperatures don't bother you this should. The EURO control has this for snowfall over the next 15 days. In my opinion it's the absolute worst case scenario and a very unlikely solution. However, the fact that so much snow is shown falling so far south does not bode well for temperatures. It also suggests the odds are well above normal for at least some late season snow. Nobody wants it but but if it happens, you know it won't be around more than a day or two with normal highs for this period upper 50s to near 60.

Well, that's enough bad news for one post. I'll end it now. Roll weather...TS

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