LIKE A HOT POTATO...

April 3, 2019

Before we get going here I wanted to show you a couple of pictures taken in my northern viewing area early Tuesday morning (April 2nd) They speak for themselves.

The snow melted fast as it usually does in April but a few places in NW Iowa picked up 2" of accumulation. The winter that keeps on giving!

 

Moving on, my post yesterday was focused on teleconnections that pointed toward cooler than normal temperatures over the next 2 to 3 weeks. I made a point to mention not every day would end up chilly, but over the duration of the period there would be more cool days than warm ones. To illustrate the trends I showed you the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) which looked like this. 

Notice the short lived positive spike April 3-7. That's followed by an extended period of negatives the 8-23rd. You can see how the changes are reflected in the 15 day temperature forecast, up with the spike and then down with the dip. It's always good to see the deterministic models going the way of the teleconnections.

Here's another perspective of the same data that's a bit easier to read.

So let's talk about that positive spike. While it looks to be short lived it might just have the power to bring some of us our first 70 degree high this Saturday and perhaps Sunday. The GFS shows the potential. A nice analogy for the short warm-up is a hot potato...nice and toasty when it comes out, but it cools fast once you split it open and release the heat next week. 

From potatoes to rain, our next weather maker will bring that Wednesday night as it rolls in from the Plains. You can see it spread in on this animation through Thursday.

With respectable moisture and forcing some moderate rainfall is expected with the system. Here are some rainfall forecasts.

 

The NAM.

The 3k NAM

The GFS

With the storm in the area the next 2 days it will be cool with highs in the 50s Wednesday and the 40s and 50s Thursday. Then some of that good stuff arrives starting the warming we'll enjoy this weekend. Yea baby. Roll weather...TS

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© 2019 Terry Swails