© 2019 Terry Swails

A LITTLE OF EVERYTHING, IT MUST BE SPRING...

April 5, 2019

The past 12 months (or year) have been exceptionally wet across the eastern half of the nation. From March 2018 through February 2019, Wisconsin experienced its wettest 12 month period in 124 years of records. Iowa came in number 2 and Illinois number 9. The winter (December-February) was similar with the entire Midwest ranking in the top 2 to 7 for all-time wettest over that 124 year period.

Thankfully, since the beginning of meteorological Spring (March-May), the pattern has dried considerably over the northern half of the Midwest with below normal precipitation and a lot less snow.

You can see all of the 4 major cities in my viewing area are below normal since March 1st with Dubuque leading the way with a deficit of 0.89". 

Unfortunately, it looks like the party is coming to an end for the drier conditions next week when a series of potent storms roll across the Midwest. In the 500mb jet stream animation below you can see in blue, 2 vigorous short waves (energy) traversing the Midwest in the period April 10-14th. 

The 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks show the trend to wetter weather. 

While temperatures will be mild into early next week, once the wetter weather arrives readings are expected to be substantially below normal in the 6-14 day period. You can see the trends reflected in the long range outlooks.

In some areas. late season snow is a possibility on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield. The EURO EPS ensembles have this for mean snowfall out 15 days ending April 19th.

The EPS control really hits southern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and my northern counties hard.

The GEFS ensemble has this for snow.

The deterministic models of the GFS and EURO have this for snow in their most recent runs.

 

The EURO

The GFS 

Where it doesn't snow, rain should be widespread and potentially significant. The broad brush approach of the EURO EPS mean shows this for rainfall over the next 15 days. Some spots will have higher amounts.

Before the active pattern gets established our weekend should be a mild one, for some the warmest highs in about 6 months. Saturday looks to be the best day when southerly winds and partly sunny skies send highs into the upper 60s to low 70s. I'm all about that! Roll weather...TS

 

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